Earth2Space

Space is no longer a distant dream—it’s a geopolitical frontier where power, politics, and geography collide. In The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World, Tim Marshall dissects this emerging reality, mapping out how nations like the United States, China, and Russia are vying for dominance beyond Earth’s atmosphere. From spy satellites circling the Moon to the race for lunar resources, Marshall argues that the geography of space—its orbits, Lagrange points, and planetary surfaces—will dictate the next chapter of human history, much as mountains and rivers shaped empires on Earth. Strikingly, this vision finds an eerie echo in The Expanse, a TV series (and book series by James S.A. Corey) that doesn’t just entertain but prophesies a future where space politics mirror today’s tensions, amplified by the vastness of the solar system. By comparing Marshall’s analysis with The Expanse’s narrative, we see not just a warning but a roadmap for what might unfold as humanity takes its rivalries skyward.

The Geography of Power: From Earth to Orbit

Marshall’s book begins with a sobering truth: space has its own geography, distinct yet tethered to Earth’s. Low Earth Orbit (LEO), at 400 kilometers where the International Space Station resides, is a congested highway of satellites—over 4,900 by 2023, with the U.S. controlling 3,000, per Marshall’s count. Geosynchronous orbits, 36,000 kilometers up, are prime real estate for communication and surveillance, while Lagrange points—stable gravitational pockets—offer strategic footholds for future bases. This isn’t abstract; it’s a new battlefield where nations jostle for position. Marshall highlights how Cold War-era treaties, like the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, crumble under modern ambitions, leaving a legal vacuum ripe for conflict.

The Expanse takes this concept and runs with it, projecting a future centuries ahead where space geography defines political fault lines. Earth, the cradle of humanity, governs from the United Nations, its power rooted in controlling LEO and its satellites—much like the U.S. today. Mars, terraformed and militarized, mirrors Marshall’s vision of a spacefaring China, its disciplined society leveraging technology to rival Earth. The asteroid belt, or “Belt,” is a chaotic frontier, its inhabitants (“Belters”) exploited for resources like water ice, akin to Marshall’s warnings of lunar helium-3 or asteroid metals sparking economic wars. In a 2015 interview with io9, Ty Franck explained their approach: “We wanted the Belt to feel like the developing world—underdog regions squeezed by superpowers, with geography dictating who gets power and who gets crushed.” This aligns with Marshall’s point that space’s physical layout—its distances, orbits, and resources—will amplify terrestrial inequalities.

The Political Backbone: Rivalry Goes Cosmic

Marshall’s analysis centers on the “big three”—the U.S., China, and Russia—whose space programs reflect their earthly agendas. The U.S. leads with NASA and private giants like SpaceX, China militarizes its ambitions with plans for a lunar base, and Russia, though lagging, flexes muscle with anti-satellite weapons. Marshall warns of a new space race, not for prestige but for survival—control of orbits means control of communication, defense, and wealth. He cites the Artemis Accords, a U.S.-led framework, clashing with China’s refusal to sign, hinting at a fractured future where cooperation falters.

Enter The Expanse, where this rivalry matures into a tripartite cold war. Earth’s UN, Mars’ Congressional Republic, and the Belt’s Outer Planets Alliance (OPA) are locked in a tense stalemate, their politics shaped by space’s unforgiving terrain. The show’s creators, in a 2019 Amazon Q&A, described their inspiration: “We looked at colonial history—Britain, Spain, the scramble for Africa—and asked, ‘What if that happened in space?’ The physics of distance, the scarcity of air and water, they’re the real politics.” The Belt’s OPA, a loose coalition of rebels, parallels Marshall’s mention of smaller nations—India, the UAE—entering the fray, their token space programs hinting at future wildcards. The protomolecule, a fictional alien tech driving the plot, could symbolize Marshall’s space metals, a prize escalating tensions to war. As Daniel Abraham told The Verge in 2018, “The politics aren’t decoration—they’re the story. Space just makes the stakes bigger.”

A Plausible Prophecy: Fiction Meets Fact

What makes The Expanse a backbone for Marshall’s thesis is its grounding in real science and human nature. Marshall notes the militarization of space—China’s 2007 anti-satellite test, Russia’s focus on “space lasers”—and The Expanse delivers this with railguns and stealth ships patrolling the Belt. Marshall’s legal vacuum finds its counterpart in the show’s fragile treaties, like the Earth-Mars truce, collapsing under greed or miscalculation. Even the cultural divides—Earthers’ arrogance, Martians’ rigidity, Belters’ resilience—echo Marshall’s observation that space won’t erase human flaws but magnify them.

In a 2023 Royal Institution talk, Marshall reflected on his book’s genesis: “I saw astropolitics as geopolitics unbound—same rivalries, new turf. The Expanse nails this; it’s not optimistic, but it’s honest.” The show’s creators share this realism. Franck, in a 2021 Polygon interview, said, “We didn’t invent this—look at oil wars, trade routes. Space is just the next ocean to fight over.” The Expanse’s pivotal “Eros Incident,” where a corporation unleashes the protomolecule, mirrors Marshall’s fears of private players—think Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos—destabilizing the order. SpaceX’s Starlink, with over 6,000 satellites by 2025, already hints at this, a point Marshall flags as a governance nightmare.

Philosophical Echoes: Explorers or Exploiters?

Both works grapple with humanity’s dual nature, a theme Carl Sagan might applaud: Are we explorers or exploiters? Marshall cites the Moon as a launchpad for Mars but warns of its lithium and silicon sparking conquest, not collaboration. The Expanse wrestles with this too—Earth hoards resources while Belters die mining them, yet moments of unity, like the Nauvoo’s launch, hint at hope. Marshall’s plea for new treaties finds a fictional plea in the OPA’s cry for justice, both underscoring Sagan’s “we are explorers” ethos against humanity’s baser instincts.

Why It Matters

The Future of Geography and The Expanse don’t just predict—they prepare us. Marshall’s book is a wake-up call: space’s geography will dictate power, and we’re unready. The Expanse is its vivid proof, a narrative where orbital mechanics and political machinations are inseparable. Together, they suggest that the solar system could become a fractured empire, its politics as brutal as Earth’s past—or a crucible for something better, if we heed the signs. As Marshall writes, “Space is a global common disappearing.” The Expanse shows what’s at stake if we let it.